Natural Gas (Henry Hub) NATGAS
commodity
Price History
The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.
Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $2.18 and $3.88; nine in ten between $1.82 and $4.67.
Tested against this asset’s own history: across 253 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 77% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.
Time underwater
How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.
Worst drawdown: −88%, peaking Sep 2005 and bottoming Feb 2020 — still unrecovered after 215 months.
DCA Backtest
- Invested
- $26,800
- Value today
- $21,540
- Return
- -19.6%
- Months invested
- 268
Scenarios
Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $38,869 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is -44.6%.
Lump sum instead — $26,800 all at once in Aug 2000: $16,327 (-39.1%) — DCA came out ahead.
Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Sep 2005): $18,195 on $21,600 invested (-15.8%).
Backtests use monthly closing prices. Stock dividends aren’t reinvested, so long-run equity returns are understated.
If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.
Every start month at once
Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.
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About Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Henry Hub is the US natural gas benchmark. Gas is brutally seasonal and storage-driven, making it one of the most volatile major commodities — and a poor fit for buy-and-hold, since the futures curve's persistent contango bleeds rolled positions. Prices are the continuous front-month COMEX/NYMEX/ICE futures series in USD — the standard reference price, but not directly investable: a real position via rolled futures or an ETF differs by roll yield and fees. (emrite)
It's a commodity categorised under energy and USD per MMBtu.
There isn’t enough researched data to give it an overall rating yet — only 45% of the scoring weight is backed by facts, below the 60% needed. The score shown is partial and covers only what’s known.
What pushes the score up: market / volatility (3.3/5).
Not yet researched: structure / supply. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.
Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.
Risk Profile
Only 45% of the weighting is fact-backed so far — not enough for an overall rating. The partial score covers the rated categories below; the unrated ones may be where this asset’s real risk sits.
- Annualised volatility (3yr)4/557.5
- Max drawdown from ATH5/587.9
- Beta vs S&P 5001/50.20
- Futures roll & carry costnot yet researched
- Supply concentrationnot yet researched
Linked Assets
Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.