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How the risk ratings work

Every rating is built the same way: a fact is sourced, a fixed rule turns that fact into a 1–5 score, and scores roll up into weighted categories. No score is ever set by hand or by feel — within an asset class the same rule applies to every asset, so two assets with the same facts always get the same score. Volatility thresholds are the one place the classes differ: they are calibrated per class (crypto / equity / commodity), because 50% annualised volatility is unremarkable for a token and near the top of the S&P 500. The table is chosen by class, never per asset.

What the bands mean

These boundaries are deliberately not spread evenly across the 1–5 factor scale, because composite scores never occupy that range. A composite averages many factors, so reaching 4+ would need almost every factor to be terrible — which essentially never happens for a real listed company. Splitting 1–5 evenly would leave the top two bands permanently empty and dump most assets into one bucket. The boundaries sit where the distribution actually lies — but they are still absolute, not percentiles, so adding worse assets later fills the upper bands rather than relabelling everyone else. The dashed lines below are those boundaries against the live distribution:

The current rated universe: 615 banded assets spanning 1.18 to 3.72, median 2.29 — computed from the same risk files every page reads, so it moves with each refresh.

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Why some assets show “Partial” instead of a band

A factor with no researched fact behind it is left unrated and dropped from the calculation entirely, rather than filled in with a guess or a neutral placeholder. The remaining weights are renormalised so the score reflects only what is actually known.

An overall band is only assigned once at least 60% of the weighting is fact-backed and the Market / Volatility category is rated. That second condition matters for newly-listed assets: a token with only a few months of history can clear the coverage threshold on structural factors alone and be labelled low risk without its price risk ever having been measured.

This matters more than it sounds. Rate a stablecoin on volatility and liquidity alone and it looks flawless — both are excellent by construction — while everything that actually carries its risk (what backs it, who holds the reserves, the regulatory position) sits unrated. Showing a confident “Low Risk” there would be asserting the unknown half resembles the known half. It usually doesn’t.

Crypto factors

Market / Volatility

30% of score

Annualised volatility over three years, worst peak-to-trough drawdown, and beta against Bitcoin.

How violently the price moves, and how much of that is the whole market moving versus this asset specifically.

Automated — derived from monthly price history.

Liquidity

10% of score

Daily volume against market cap, share of volume on the single largest exchange, and number of meaningful listings.

Whether you can actually get out at size. Thin volume concentrated on one exchange is the risk that bites when you most need to sell.

Automated — CoinGecko market and exchange data.

Holder Concentration

15% of score

Share of supply held by the top 10 wallets, and tokens unlocking in the next six months.

A few holders able to exit at once, or a large scheduled unlock, is supply overhang the price hasn't absorbed yet.

Manual research.

Smart Contract / Technical

12% of score

Audit status and recency, whether an admin key can change the contract, and for proof-of-work chains the share of its mining algorithm that secures it.

Code and consensus risk. An unaudited contract, or one a single key can rewrite, can lose funds regardless of price. The hashrate share matters because a minority user of an algorithm a larger chain also uses can be attacked with rented hashpower — Ethereum Classic was attacked repeatedly this way, and is safe now only because the larger chain left the algorithm.

Manual research.

Custody / Bridge

10% of score

Whether the asset depends on a bridge or a centralised issuer honouring redemption.

Bridges are among the most exploited things in crypto, and a wrapped asset is only as good as its backing.

Manual research.

Governance / Team

10% of score

Whether the team is identifiable and has a track record, and how centralised governance is.

Anonymous teams with unilateral control are the precondition for most rug pulls.

Manual research.

Regulatory

10% of score

Pre-mine and ICO history, centralised issuance, and any enforcement action or delisting.

Regulatory reclassification can remove access to exchanges regardless of how the technology performs.

Manual research.

Systemic / Correlation

3% of score

Correlation to Bitcoin.

Tells you how much diversification you're actually getting. Highly correlated holdings fall together.

Automated — derived from price history.

Equity factors

Market / Volatility

20% of score

Annualised volatility over three years, maximum drawdown, and beta against the S&P 500.

How much the share price swings, and how much of that is simply the market moving.

Automated — derived from monthly price history.

Liquidity

15% of score

Average daily traded value and the free float.

Whether a position can be exited without moving the price against you.

Automated — volume from price history; float is manual.

Leverage / Financial

20% of score

Borrowings against shareholders' equity, and how many times operating profit covers interest — scored on sector-aware thresholds.

Debt is what turns a bad year into an existential one. Thresholds vary by sector because leverage means different things in different businesses: a regulated utility funding long-lived assets against rate-set cash flows is not the same as a software company at the same ratio, and for a bank borrowing is the product.

Automated — SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (US-listed only).

Earnings Quality

15% of score

Volatility of year-on-year earnings per share.

Erratic or negative earnings make valuation guesswork and tend to precede unpleasant surprises.

Automated — SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (US-listed only).

Concentration

10% of score

Revenue dependence on the largest customer, and geographic concentration.

A business leaning on one customer or one volatile region carries risk that the share price often doesn't reflect until it lands.

Manual research (10-K filings).

Governance

10% of score

Board independence, share-class structure, and litigation or restatement history.

Weak oversight and dual-class control mean minority holders have little recourse when management errs.

Manual research (proxy statements).

Sector / Regulatory

10% of score

Baseline regulatory exposure of the company's sector.

Utilities and financials face policy risk that tech generally doesn't, independent of how well the business is run.

Automated — fixed lookup from the company's GICS sector.

Known limitations

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules. They are not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence — particularly on anything you intend to size meaningfully.