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Soybeans SOYBEANS

commodity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$961.75$1,211$1,459$1,708
2021-012026-09 · $1,304

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $1,160 and $1,465; nine in ten between $1,076 and $1,579.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 252 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 69% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-52.8%-35.2%-17.6%0.0%
2000-092026-09 · -26.1%

Worst drawdown: −53%, peaking Aug 2012 and bottoming Aug 2018 — still unrecovered after 145 months.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$26,700
Value today
$38,878
Return
+45.6%
Months invested
267

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $38,676 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +0.5%.

Lump sum instead — $26,700 all at once in Sep 2000: $69,746 (+161.2%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Aug 2012): $17,157 on $14,600 invested (+17.5%).

Backtests use monthly closing prices. Stock dividends aren’t reinvested, so long-run equity returns are understated.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
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Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2000-09: +45.6%

About Soybeans

Soybeans are the world's dominant protein crop, crushed into meal for livestock and oil for food and fuel. The trade is a US–Brazil duopoly selling chiefly to China, which makes the price as geopolitical as it is agricultural. Prices are the continuous front-month COMEX/NYMEX/ICE futures series in USD — the standard reference price, but not directly investable: a real position via rolled futures or an ETF differs by roll yield and fees. (emrite)

It's a commodity categorised under agriculture and US cents per bushel.

There isn’t enough researched data to give it an overall rating yet — only 45% of the scoring weight is backed by facts, below the 60% needed. The score shown is partial and covers only what’s known.

Not yet researched: structure / supply. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Partial 2.0/5(45%)

Only 45% of the weighting is fact-backed so far — not enough for an overall rating. The partial score covers the rated categories below; the unrated ones may be where this asset’s real risk sits.

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility2.0/5 · weight 45%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)2/523.3
  • Max drawdown from ATH3/552.8
  • Beta vs S&P 5001/50.38
Structure / Supplyunrated · weight 55%
  • Futures roll & carry costnot yet researched
  • Supply concentrationnot yet researched

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.