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Cocoa COCOA

commodity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$2,291$5,190$8,088$10,987
2021-012026-09 · $5,327

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $3,911 and $7,256; nine in ten between $3,204 and $8,857.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 260 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 75% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-68.2%-45.5%-22.7%0.0%
2000-012026-09 · -51.5%

Worst drawdown: −68%, peaking Jan 2025 and bottoming Apr 2026 — still unrecovered after 17 months.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$27,500
Value today
$69,143
Return
+151.4%
Months invested
275

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $40,237 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +71.8%.

Lump sum instead — $27,500 all at once in Jan 2000: $184,267 (+570.1%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Jan 2025): $1,574 on $1,800 invested (-12.6%).

Backtests use monthly closing prices. Stock dividends aren’t reinvested, so long-run equity returns are understated.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
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Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2000-01: +151.4%

About Cocoa

Cocoa comes overwhelmingly from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, and disease plus underinvestment in ageing trees produced 2024's historic squeeze, when prices roughly tripled in months. Supply concentration this extreme cuts both ways. Prices are the continuous front-month COMEX/NYMEX/ICE futures series in USD — the standard reference price, but not directly investable: a real position via rolled futures or an ETF differs by roll yield and fees. (emrite)

It's a commodity categorised under agriculture and USD per tonne.

There isn’t enough researched data to give it an overall rating yet — only 45% of the scoring weight is backed by facts, below the 60% needed. The score shown is partial and covers only what’s known.

What pushes the score up: market / volatility (3.0/5).

Not yet researched: structure / supply. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Partial 3.0/5(45%)

Only 45% of the weighting is fact-backed so far — not enough for an overall rating. The partial score covers the rated categories below; the unrated ones may be where this asset’s real risk sits.

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility3.0/5 · weight 45%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)5/561.8
  • Max drawdown from ATH3/568.2
  • Beta vs S&P 5001/50.27
Structure / Supplyunrated · weight 55%
  • Futures roll & carry costnot yet researched
  • Supply concentrationnot yet researched

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.