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Cocoa COCOA

commodity

Price History

$704$4,361$8,018$11,675
2000-01 · DCA start$795

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-76.0%-50.7%-25.3%0.0%
2000-012026-08 · -51.6%

Worst drawdown: −76%, peaking Dec 2024 and bottoming Feb 2026 — still unrecovered after 20 months.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$32,000
Value today
$84,974
Return
+165.5%
Months invested
320

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $46,642 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +82.2%.

Lump sum instead — $32,000 all at once in Jan 2000: $227,341 (+610.4%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Dec 2024): $2,059 on $2,100 invested (-1.9%).

Backtests use monthly closing prices. Stock dividends aren’t reinvested, so long-run equity returns are understated.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
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Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2000-01: +165.5%

About Cocoa

Cocoa comes overwhelmingly from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, and disease plus underinvestment in ageing trees produced 2024's historic squeeze, when prices roughly tripled in months. Supply concentration this extreme cuts both ways. Prices are the continuous front-month COMEX/NYMEX/ICE futures series in USD — the standard reference price, but not directly investable: a real position via rolled futures or an ETF differs by roll yield and fees. (emrite)

It's a commodity categorised under agriculture and USD per tonne.

There isn’t enough researched data to give it an overall rating yet — only 45% of the scoring weight is backed by facts, below the 60% needed. The score shown is partial and covers only what’s known.

What pushes the score up: market / volatility (3.3/5).

Not yet researched: structure / supply. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Partial 3.3/5(45%)

Only 45% of the weighting is fact-backed so far — not enough for an overall rating. The partial score covers the rated categories below; the unrated ones may be where this asset’s real risk sits.

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility3.3/5 · weight 45%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)5/562.1
  • Max drawdown from ATH4/576.0
  • Beta vs S&P 5001/50.28
Structure / Supplyunrated · weight 55%
  • Futures roll & carry costnot yet researched
  • Supply concentrationnot yet researched

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.