Coffee (Arabica) COFFEE

commodity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

2021-012026-09 · $294.55

Range of outcomes, looking ahead3 months

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $238.89 and $363.18; nine in ten between $208.7 and $415.71.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 260 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 72% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

2000-012026-09 · -28.8%

Worst drawdown: −69%, peaking Apr 2011 and bottoming Apr 2019 — 139 months below the prior high before recovering.

DCA Backtest

Start month

Monthly amount (USD)

Invested: $27,500
Value today: $69,269
Return: +151.9%
Months invested: 275

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $40,237 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +72.2%.

Lump sum instead — $27,500 all at once in Jan 2000: $72,908 (+165.1%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Apr 2025): $1,307 on $1,500 invested (-12.9%).

Backtests use monthly closing prices. Stock dividends aren’t reinvested, so long-run equity returns are understated.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

	J	F	M	A	M	J	J	A	S	O	N	D
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Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2000-01: +151.9%

About Coffee (Arabica)

Arabica coffee is produced mostly in Brazil, whose frosts and droughts have driven every major price spike for a century. A perennial tree crop, supply responds to price only with a multi-year lag, so shortages run long. Prices are the continuous front-month COMEX/NYMEX/ICE futures series in USD — the standard reference price, but not directly investable: a real position via rolled futures or an ETF differs by roll yield and fees. (emrite)

It's a commodity categorised under agriculture and US cents per pound.

There isn’t enough researched data to give it an overall rating yet — only 45% of the scoring weight is backed by facts, below the 60% needed. The score shown is partial and covers only what’s known.

What pushes the score up: market / volatility (2.7/5).

Not yet researched: structure / supply. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Partial 2.7/5(45%)

Only 45% of the weighting is fact-backed so far — not enough for an overall rating. The partial score covers the rated categories below; the unrated ones may be where this asset’s real risk sits.

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility2.7/5 · weight 45%

Annualised volatility (3yr)4/541.9
Max drawdown from ATH3/569.3
Beta vs S&P 5001/50.28

Structure / Supplyunrated · weight 55%

Futures roll & carry costnot yet researched
Supply concentrationnot yet researched

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.