Bitcoin BTC

crypto

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

2021-102026-09 · $81,234

Range of outcomes, looking ahead3 months

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $64,011 and $103,090; nine in ten between $54,893 and $120,215.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 130 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 62% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

2014-092026-09 · -29.8%

Worst drawdown: −76%, peaking Dec 2017 and bottoming Jan 2019 — 35 months below the prior high before recovering.

DCA Backtest

Start month

Monthly amount (USD)

Invested: $14,500
Value today: $733,635
Return: +4959.6%
Months invested: 145

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $17,873 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +4004.6%.

Lump sum instead — $14,500 all at once in Sep 2014: $3,044,080 (+20893.7%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Jul 2025): $1,505 on $1,500 invested (+0.3%).

Backtests use monthly closing prices. Stock dividends aren’t reinvested, so long-run equity returns are understated.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

	J	F	M	A	M	J	J	A	S	O	N	D
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026

Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2014-09: +4959.6%

About Bitcoin

Bitcoin is the world's first decentralized cryptocurrency, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. It enables peer-to-peer electronic cash transactions without intermediaries like banks or governments, operating on a blockchain secured by Proof of Work mining and the SHA-256 cryptographic algorithm. (CoinGecko)

It's a cryptocurrency categorised under layer 1, with a market cap of about $1.66T.

It rates Medium-Low Risk at 1.9/5, meaning the rated factors are mostly sound, with one or two areas worth watching.

What pushes the score up: market / volatility (3.0/5).

Scoring well: regulatory at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: governance / team, systemic / correlation. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Medium-Low Risk(1.9/5)87% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility3.0/5 · weight 30%

Annualised volatility (3yr)2/547.7
Max drawdown from ATH4/575.6
Beta vs BTCn/a — this is the benchmark

Liquidity2.0/5 · weight 10%

24h volume / market cap4/51.6
Top exchange % of volume1/59.0
Significant listings1/546.0

Supply & Concentration1.0/5 · weight 15%

Top 10 wallets % of supply1/56.0
Unlocks in next 6mo, % of supply1/50.00
Annual supply growth %1/50.80

Smart Contract / Technical1.7/5 · weight 12%

Audit status3/5unaudited long track record
Admin key / upgradeability1/5none immutable
Share of its mining algorithm (PoW)1/596.0

Custody / Bridge1.0/5 · weight 10%

Bridge reliance1/5no bridge dependency

Governance / Teamunrated · weight 10%

Teamnot yet researched
Largest staking operator, % of stakenot yet researched

Regulatory1.0/5 · weight 10%

Regulatory profile1/5organic no history

Systemic / Correlationunrated · weight 3%

Correlation to BTCn/a — this is the benchmark

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.