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Polkadot DOT

crypto

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$0.566$14.62$28.68$42.74
2021-102026-09 · $1.12

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $0.740 and $1.7; nine in ten between $0.566 and $2.23.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 59 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 71% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-98.2%-65.5%-32.7%0.0%
2020-082026-09 · -97.4%

Worst drawdown: −98%, peaking Oct 2021 and bottoming Jul 2026 — still unrecovered after 59 months.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$7,400
Value today
$2,127
Return
-71.3%
Months invested
74

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $8,238 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is -74.2%.

Lump sum instead — $7,400 all at once in Aug 2020: $1,319 (-82.2%) — DCA came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Oct 2021): $1,982 on $6,000 invested (-67.0%).

Backtests use monthly closing prices. Stock dividends aren’t reinvested, so long-run equity returns are understated.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2020-08: -71.3%

About Polkadot

Polkadot is a platform that allows diverse blockchains to transfer messages, including value, in a trust-free fashion; sharing their unique features while pooling their security. In brief, Polkadot is a scalable heterogeneous multi-chain technology. Polkadot is heterogeneous because it is entirely flexible and makes no assumption about the nature or structure of the chains in the network. Even non-blockchain systems or data structures can become parachains if they fulfill a set of criteria. Polkadot may be considered equivalent to a set of independent chains (e.g. (CoinGecko)

It's a cryptocurrency categorised under layer 1, with a market cap of about $2.1B.

It rates High Risk at 2.8/5, meaning several rated factors score badly, so this carries materially more risk than a typical holding.

What pushes the score up: systemic / correlation (4.0/5) and market / volatility (3.7/5).

Scoring well: governance / team at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: supply & concentration, smart contract / technical, custody / bridge. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

High Risk(2.8/5)63% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility3.7/5 · weight 30%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)3/583.4
  • Max drawdown from ATH5/598.2
  • Beta vs BTC3/51.2
Liquidity1.7/5 · weight 10%
  • 24h volume / market cap3/54.1
  • Top exchange % of volume1/512.5
  • Significant listings1/534.0
Supply & Concentrationunrated · weight 15%
  • Top 10 wallets % of supplynot yet researched
  • Unlocks in next 6mo, % of supplynot yet researched
  • Annual supply growth %not yet researched
Smart Contract / Technicalunrated · weight 12%
  • Audit statusnot yet researched
  • Admin key / upgradeabilitynot yet researched
  • Share of its mining algorithm (PoW)not yet researched
Custody / Bridgeunrated · weight 10%
  • Bridge reliancenot yet researched
Governance / Team1.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Team1/5doxxed track record
  • Largest staking operator, % of stakenot yet researched
Regulatory3.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Regulatory profile3/5significant premine centralized issuer
Systemic / Correlation4.0/5 · weight 3%
  • Correlation to BTC4/50.77

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.