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Avalanche AVAX

crypto

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$4.57$43.16$81.75$120.34
2021-102026-09 · $10.09

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $6.23 and $16.32; nine in ten between $4.57 and $22.25.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 59 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 80% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-94.7%-63.1%-31.6%0.0%
2020-072026-09 · -91.6%

Worst drawdown: −95%, peaking Nov 2021 and bottoming Jul 2026 — still unrecovered after 58 months.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$7,400
Value today
$5,221
Return
-29.4%
Months invested
74

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $8,239 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is -36.6%.

Lump sum instead — $7,400 all at once in Jul 2020: $14,967 (+102.3%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Nov 2021): $3,460 on $5,900 invested (-41.3%).

Backtests use monthly closing prices. Stock dividends aren’t reinvested, so long-run equity returns are understated.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2020-07: -29.4%

About Avalanche

Avalanche is a high throughput smart contract blockchain platform. Validators secure the network through a proof-of-stake consensus protocol. It is said to be fast, low cost, and environmental friendly. (CoinGecko)

It's a cryptocurrency categorised under layer 1, with a market cap of about $4.8B.

It rates Medium-High Risk at 2.5/5, meaning real but ordinary risk — the kind most mainstream assets carry, with some factors scoring poorly.

What pushes the score up: market / volatility (3.7/5) and regulatory (3.0/5).

Scoring well: governance / team at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: supply & concentration, smart contract / technical. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Medium-High Risk(2.5/5)73% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility3.7/5 · weight 30%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)3/596.2
  • Max drawdown from ATH5/594.7
  • Beta vs BTC3/51.2
Liquidity1.7/5 · weight 10%
  • 24h volume / market cap3/54.4
  • Top exchange % of volume1/510.6
  • Significant listings1/536.0
Supply & Concentrationunrated · weight 15%
  • Top 10 wallets % of supplynot yet researched
  • Unlocks in next 6mo, % of supplynot yet researched
  • Annual supply growth %not yet researched
Smart Contract / Technicalunrated · weight 12%
  • Audit statusnot yet researched
  • Admin key / upgradeabilitynot yet researched
  • Share of its mining algorithm (PoW)not yet researched
Custody / Bridge1.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Bridge reliance1/5no bridge dependency
Governance / Team1.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Team1/5doxxed track record
  • Largest staking operator, % of stakenot yet researched
Regulatory3.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Regulatory profile3/5significant premine centralized issuer
Systemic / Correlation3.0/5 · weight 3%
  • Correlation to BTC3/50.56

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.