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Ulta Beauty ULTA

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$352.84$475.19$597.53$719.88
2021-102026-09 · $540.98

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $454.73 and $643.59; nine in ten between $406.54 and $719.88.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 213 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 70% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-83.6%-55.8%-27.9%0.0%
2007-102026-09 · -21.0%

Worst drawdown: −84%, peaking Oct 2007 and bottoming Feb 2009 — 37 months below the prior high before recovering.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$22,800
Value today
$216,960
Return
+851.6%
Months invested
228

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $30,301 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +616.0%.

Lump sum instead — $22,800 all at once in Oct 2007: $360,653 (+1481.8%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Feb 2026): $815.63 on $800 invested (+2.0%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
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Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2007-10: +851.6%

About Ulta Beauty

Ulta Beauty, Inc., formerly known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc. and before 2000 as Ulta3, is an American chain of cosmetic stores headquartered in Bolingbrook, Illinois. Ulta Beauty carries both high- and low-end cosmetics, fragrances, nail products, bath and body products, beauty tools and haircare products. Each location has a beauty salon available to the public. (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under consumer discretionary and other specialty retail, with a market cap of about $23.1B.

It rates Medium-Low Risk at 1.8/5, meaning the rated factors are mostly sound, with one or two areas worth watching.

What pushes the score up: market / volatility (3.3/5).

Scoring well: sector / regulatory at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: leverage / financial, concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Medium-Low Risk(1.8/5)60% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility3.3/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)3/534.7
  • Max drawdown from ATH4/583.6
  • Beta vs S&P 5003/51.3
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/5376.6m
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financialunrated · weight 20%
  • Debt / equitynot yet researched
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)not yet researched
Earnings Quality1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatility1/52.7
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory1.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure1/5low

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.