Back to all assets

Netflix NFLX

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$17.49$56.3$95.1$133.91
2021-102026-09 · $71.79

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $60.49 and $85.2; nine in ten between $54.16 and $95.15.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 278 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 69% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-79.9%-53.3%-26.6%0.0%
2002-052026-09 · -46.4%

Worst drawdown: −80%, peaking May 2011 and bottoming Sep 2012 — 27 months below the prior high before recovering.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$29,300
Value today
$2,971,246
Return
+10040.8%
Months invested
293

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $41,583 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +7045.3%.

Lump sum instead — $29,300 all at once in May 2002: $19,540,955 (+66592.7%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Jun 2025): $1,227 on $1,600 invested (-23.3%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2002-05: +10040.8%

About Netflix

Netflix, Inc. is an American media company founded on August 29, 1997, by Reed Hastings and Marc Randolph in Scotts Valley, California, and currently based in Los Gatos, California, with production offices and stages at the Los Angeles-based Hollywood studios and the Albuquerque Studios. It owns and operates an eponymous over-the-top subscription video on-demand service, which showcases acquired and original programming as well as third-party content licensed from other production companies and distributors. (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under communication services and movies & entertainment, with a market cap of about $298.9B.

It rates Medium-High Risk at 2.5/5, meaning real but ordinary risk — the kind most mainstream assets carry, with some factors scoring poorly.

What pushes the score up: market / volatility (3.3/5) and earnings quality (3.0/5).

Scoring well: liquidity at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Medium-High Risk(2.5/5)80% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility3.3/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)3/534.3
  • Max drawdown from ATH4/579.9
  • Beta vs S&P 5003/51.1
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/53.2bn
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financial2.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Debt / equity2/50.47
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)not yet researched
Earnings Quality3.0/5 · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatility3/526.3
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory3.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure3/5elevated

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.