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Carvana CVNA

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$0.948$40$79.04$118.09
2021-102026-09 · $65.11

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $45.34 and $93.5; nine in ten between $35.9 and $118.09.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 99 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 73% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-98.6%-65.7%-32.9%-0.0%
2017-042026-09 · -22.9%

Worst drawdown: −99%, peaking Jul 2021 and bottoming Dec 2022 — 48 months below the prior high before recovering.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$11,400
Value today
$92,892
Return
+714.8%
Months invested
114

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $13,536 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +586.3%.

Lump sum instead — $11,400 all at once in Apr 2017: $334,349 (+2832.9%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Dec 2025): $922.69 on $1,000 invested (-7.7%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2017-04: +714.8%

About Carvana

Carvana Co. is an American online car retailer based in Tempe, Arizona. Carvana was named to the 2021 Fortune 500 list, one of the youngest companies to be added to the list. (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under consumer discretionary and automotive retail.

It rates Extreme Risk at 3.3/5, meaning the rated factors are poor across the board — treat any position here as speculative.

What pushes the score up: market / volatility (5.0/5) and earnings quality (5.0/5).

Scoring well: sector / regulatory at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Extreme Risk(3.3/5)80% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility5.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)5/572.4
  • Max drawdown from ATH5/598.6
  • Beta vs S&P 5005/52.9
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/5698.6m
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financial3.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Debt / equity3/51.3
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)not yet researched
Earnings Quality5.0/5 · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatility5/5226
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory1.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure1/5low

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.