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Airbnb ABNB

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$85.5$127.36$169.21$211.07
2021-102026-09 · $166.22

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $143.75 and $192.2; nine in ten between $130.9 and $211.07.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 55 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 84% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-58.6%-39.0%-19.5%0.0%
2020-122026-09 · -19.4%

Worst drawdown: −59%, peaking Feb 2021 and bottoming Dec 2022 — still unrecovered after 67 months.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$7,000
Value today
$8,634
Return
+23.3%
Months invested
70

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $7,724 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +11.8%.

Lump sum instead — $7,000 all at once in Dec 2020: $7,926 (+13.2%) — DCA came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Feb 2021): $8,431 on $6,800 invested (+24.0%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2020-12: +23.3%

About Airbnb

Airbnb, Inc. is an American company operating an online marketplace for short-and-long-term homestays, experiences and services in various countries and regions. It acts as a broker and charges a commission from each booking. Airbnb was founded in 2008 by Brian Chesky, Nathan Blecharczyk, and Joe Gebbia. (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under consumer discretionary and hotels, resorts & cruise lines.

It rates Medium-Low Risk at 1.9/5, meaning the rated factors are mostly sound, with one or two areas worth watching.

What pushes the score up: market / volatility (3.0/5).

Scoring well: sector / regulatory at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: earnings quality, concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Medium-Low Risk(1.9/5)65% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility3.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)3/529.0
  • Max drawdown from ATH3/558.6
  • Beta vs S&P 5003/51.1
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/5717.6m
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financial2.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Debt / equity2/50.32
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)not yet researched
Earnings Qualityunrated · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatilitynot yet researched
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory1.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure1/5low

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.