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Twilio TWLO

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$48.96$177.76$306.55$435.35
2021-112026-10 · $289.47

Over 3 months from Oct 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $225.87 and $370.97; nine in ten between $192.47 and $435.35.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 110 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 66% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-87.6%-58.4%-29.2%0.0%
2016-062026-10 · -26.6%

Worst drawdown: −88%, peaking Jun 2021 and bottoming Dec 2022 — still unrecovered after 64 months.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$12,500
Value today
$49,367
Return
+294.9%
Months invested
125

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $15,017 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +228.8%.

Lump sum instead — $12,500 all at once in Jun 2016: $99,134 (+693.1%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Jun 2021): $20,066 on $6,500 invested (+208.7%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2016-06: +294.9%

About Twilio

Twilio (TWLO) is a listed company categorised under information technology and systems software, with a market cap of about $44.5B.

There isn’t enough researched data to give it an overall rating yet — only 45% of the scoring weight is backed by facts, below the 60% needed. The score shown is partial and covers only what’s known.

What pushes the score up: market / volatility (4.3/5).

Scoring well: sector / regulatory at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: leverage / financial, earnings quality, concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Partial 2.5/5(45%)

Only 45% of the weighting is fact-backed so far — not enough for an overall rating. The partial score covers the rated categories below; the unrated ones may be where this asset’s real risk sits.

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility4.3/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)4/549.6
  • Max drawdown from ATH5/587.6
  • Beta vs S&P 5004/51.4
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/5564.2m
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financialunrated · weight 20%
  • Debt / equitynot yet researched
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)not yet researched
Earnings Qualityunrated · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatilitynot yet researched
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory1.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure1/5low

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.