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Smurfit Westrock SW

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$29.79$38.46$47.14$55.81
2021-102026-09 · $44.33

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $38.54 and $50.99; nine in ten between $35.21 and $55.81.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 205 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 70% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-79.1%-52.8%-26.4%0.0%
2008-062026-09 · -21.9%

Worst drawdown: −79%, peaking Jun 2008 and bottoming Mar 2009 — 16 months below the prior high before recovering.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$22,000
Value today
$64,068
Return
+191.2%
Months invested
220

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $29,042 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +120.6%.

Lump sum instead — $22,000 all at once in Jun 2008: $119,664 (+443.9%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Aug 2021): $6,569 on $6,200 invested (+6.0%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
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Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2008-06: +191.2%

About Smurfit Westrock

Smurfit Westrock plc is an Irish company based in Dublin, Ireland, that manufactures corrugated and paper-based packaging. Its stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange. (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under materials and paper & plastic packaging products & materials, with a market cap of about $23.3B.

It rates High Risk at 3.0/5, meaning several rated factors score badly, so this carries materially more risk than a typical holding.

What pushes the score up: earnings quality (5.0/5) and market / volatility (3.7/5).

Scoring well: liquidity at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

High Risk(3.0/5)80% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility3.7/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)3/528.0
  • Max drawdown from ATH4/579.1
  • Beta vs S&P 5004/51.4
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/5255.0m
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financial3.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Debt / equity3/50.79
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)not yet researched
Earnings Quality5.0/5 · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatility5/596.4
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory2.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure2/5moderate

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.