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Packaging Corporation of America PKG

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$112.29$167.11$221.92$276.74
2021-102026-09 · $232.77

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $209.53 and $258.59; nine in ten between $195.79 and $276.74.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 306 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 71% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-66.7%-44.5%-22.2%0.0%
2000-012026-09 · -6.5%

Worst drawdown: −67%, peaking Oct 2007 and bottoming Feb 2009 — 58 months below the prior high before recovering.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$32,100
Value today
$218,112
Return
+579.5%
Months invested
321

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $46,926 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +364.8%.

Lump sum instead — $32,100 all at once in Jan 2000: $619,434 (+1829.7%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Nov 2024): $2,504 on $2,300 invested (+8.9%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
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Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2000-01: +579.5%

About Packaging Corporation of America

Packaging Corporation of America is an American manufacturing company based in Lake Forest, Illinois. The company has about 15,500 employees, with operations primarily in the United States. The CEO is Mark W. Kowlzan. (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under materials and paper & plastic packaging products & materials, with a market cap of about $20.7B.

It rates Medium-Low Risk at 2.0/5, meaning the rated factors are mostly sound, with one or two areas worth watching.

What pushes the score up: leverage / financial (3.0/5) and market / volatility (2.7/5).

Scoring well: earnings quality at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Medium-Low Risk(2.0/5)80% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility2.7/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)2/521.0
  • Max drawdown from ATH3/566.7
  • Beta vs S&P 5003/51.0
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/5152.6m
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financial3.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Debt / equity3/50.85
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)not yet researched
Earnings Quality1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatility1/56.5
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory2.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure2/5moderate

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.