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Lumentum LITE

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$39.21$533.53$1,028$1,522
2021-102026-09 · $930.91

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $690.38 and $1,255; nine in ten between $569.32 and $1,522.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 120 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 67% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-62.9%-42.0%-21.0%0.0%
2015-072026-09 · 0.0%

Worst drawdown: −63%, peaking Dec 2021 and bottoming Oct 2023 — 43 months below the prior high before recovering.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$13,500
Value today
$226,746
Return
+1579.6%
Months invested
135

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $16,461 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +1277.5%.

Lump sum instead — $13,500 all at once in Jul 2015: $637,933 (+4625.4%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Aug 2026): $201.77 on $200 invested (+0.9%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2015-07: +1579.6%

About Lumentum

Lumentum Holdings Inc. is an American manufacturer of optical and photonic products. It was created in 2015 as a spinoff from JDSU. (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under information technology and communications equipment, with a market cap of about $83.5B.

It rates Medium-High Risk at 2.5/5, meaning real but ordinary risk — the kind most mainstream assets carry, with some factors scoring poorly.

What pushes the score up: earnings quality (5.0/5) and market / volatility (3.3/5).

Scoring well: sector / regulatory at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Medium-High Risk(2.5/5)80% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility3.3/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)4/559.8
  • Max drawdown from ATH3/562.9
  • Beta vs S&P 5003/51.1
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/54.3bn
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financial1.5/5 · weight 20%
  • Debt / equity2/50.35
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)1/524.1
Earnings Quality5.0/5 · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatility5/5100
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory1.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure1/5low

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.