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Ciena CIEN

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$40.43$220.36$400.3$580.23
2021-102026-09 · $348.8

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $268.48 and $453.14; nine in ten between $226.78 and $536.47.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 341 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 69% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-99.4%-66.3%-33.1%0.0%
1997-022026-09 · -59.4%

Worst drawdown: −99%, peaking Sep 2000 and bottoming Feb 2009 — still unrecovered after 312 months.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$35,600
Value today
$435,480
Return
+1123.3%
Months invested
356

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $54,081 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +705.2%.

Lump sum instead — $35,600 all at once in Feb 1997: $90,390 (+153.9%) — DCA came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Sep 2000): $424,255 on $31,300 invested (+1255.4%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
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Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 1997-02: +1123.3%

About Ciena

Ciena Corporation is an American optical networking systems and software company based in Hanover, Maryland. The company reported revenues of $4.8 billion and more than 9,000 employees, as of November 2025. Gary Smith has been president and chief executive officer (CEO) since 2003. (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under information technology and communications equipment, with a market cap of about $49.5B.

It rates High Risk at 3.2/5, meaning several rated factors score badly, so this carries materially more risk than a typical holding.

What pushes the score up: earnings quality (5.0/5) and market / volatility (4.7/5).

Scoring well: sector / regulatory at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

High Risk(3.2/5)80% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility4.7/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)4/552.3
  • Max drawdown from ATH5/599.4
  • Beta vs S&P 5005/51.9
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/51.2bn
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financial3.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Debt / equity3/51.1
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)not yet researched
Earnings Quality5.0/5 · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatility5/579.6
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory1.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure1/5low

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.