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FedEx FDX

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$119.64$207.44$295.25$383.06
2021-102026-09 · $303.65

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $263.66 and $349.71; nine in ten between $240.7 and $383.06.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 567 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 70% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-63.0%-42.0%-21.0%-0.0%
1978-042026-09 · -8.5%

Worst drawdown: −63%, peaking Jun 2006 and bottoming Feb 2009 — 88 months below the prior high before recovering.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$58,200
Value today
$1,426,190
Return
+2350.5%
Months invested
582

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $122,784 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +1061.5%.

Lump sum instead — $58,200 all at once in Apr 1978: $18,288,137 (+31322.9%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (May 2026): $480.02 on $500 invested (-4.0%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
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Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 1978-04: +2350.5%

About FedEx

FedEx Corporation, originally known as Federal Express Corporation, is an American multinational conglomerate holding company specializing in transportation, e-commerce, and business services. The company is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee. The name "FedEx" is a syllabic abbreviation of its original air division, Federal Express, which operated under this name from 1973 until 1994. (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under industrials and air freight & logistics, with a market cap of about $71.8B.

It rates Medium-Low Risk at 2.1/5, meaning the rated factors are mostly sound, with one or two areas worth watching.

What pushes the score up: market / volatility (3.0/5) and leverage / financial (3.0/5).

Scoring well: earnings quality at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Medium-Low Risk(2.1/5)80% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility3.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)3/528.2
  • Max drawdown from ATH3/563.0
  • Beta vs S&P 5003/51.1
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/5589.3m
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financial3.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Debt / equity3/50.76
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)3/55.6
Earnings Quality1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatility1/59.0
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory2.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure2/5moderate

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.