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Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$25.6$38.13$50.66$63.19
2021-102026-09 · $33.43

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $28.42 and $39.32; nine in ten between $25.6 and $43.65.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 234 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 65% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-67.5%-45.0%-22.5%0.0%
2006-012026-09 · -47.1%

Worst drawdown: −68%, peaking Dec 2007 and bottoming Jan 2009 — 31 months below the prior high before recovering.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$24,900
Value today
$179,532
Return
+621.0%
Months invested
249

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $33,748 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +432.0%.

Lump sum instead — $24,900 all at once in Jan 2006: $875,849 (+3417.5%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Apr 2024): $2,282 on $3,000 invested (-23.9%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
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Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2006-01: +621.0%

About Chipotle Mexican Grill

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., also known simply as Chipotle, is an American multinational chain of fast casual restaurants specializing in bowls, tacos, and Mission burritos made to order in front of the customer. As of December 2025, Chipotle has 4,000 locations. Its name derives from chipotle, the Nahuatl name for a smoked and dried jalapeño chili pepper. (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under consumer discretionary and restaurants, with a market cap of about $42.3B.

It rates Low Risk at 1.7/5, meaning the rated factors look benign — steady pricing, deep liquidity, and no obvious structural red flags.

What pushes the score up: market / volatility (3.0/5).

Scoring well: sector / regulatory at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Low Risk(1.7/5)80% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility3.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)3/532.4
  • Max drawdown from ATH3/567.5
  • Beta vs S&P 5003/50.94
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/5722.1m
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financial1.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Debt / equity1/50.00
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)not yet researched
Earnings Quality2.0/5 · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatility2/515.6
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory1.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure1/5low

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.