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NRG Energy NRG

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$31.82$80.87$129.91$178.96
2021-102026-09 · $103.66

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $84.69 and $126.87; nine in ten between $74.35 and $144.53.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 259 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 69% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-76.7%-51.1%-25.6%0.0%
2003-122026-09 · -42.1%

Worst drawdown: −77%, peaking Oct 2007 and bottoming Oct 2016 — 166 months below the prior high before recovering.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$27,400
Value today
$108,568
Return
+296.2%
Months invested
274

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $38,104 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +184.9%.

Lump sum instead — $27,400 all at once in Dec 2003: $259,387 (+846.7%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Feb 2026): $615.09 on $800 invested (-23.1%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
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Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2003-12: +296.2%

About NRG Energy

NRG Energy, Inc. is an American energy company, headquartered in Houston, Texas. It was formerly the wholesale arm of Northern States Power Company (NSP), which became Xcel Energy, but became independent in 2000. NRG Energy is involved in energy generation and retail electricity. Their portfolio includes natural gas generation, coal generation, oil generation, nuclear generation, wind generation, utility-scale generation, and distributed solar generation. (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under utilities and independent power producers & energy traders, with a market cap of about $21.8B.

It rates High Risk at 3.2/5, meaning several rated factors score badly, so this carries materially more risk than a typical holding.

What pushes the score up: earnings quality (5.0/5) and market / volatility (3.7/5).

Scoring well: liquidity at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: leverage / financial, concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

High Risk(3.2/5)60% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility3.7/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)4/540.4
  • Max drawdown from ATH4/576.7
  • Beta vs S&P 5003/50.97
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/5363.0m
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financialunrated · weight 20%
  • Debt / equitynot yet researched
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)not yet researched
Earnings Quality5.0/5 · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatility5/5100
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory3.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure3/5elevated

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.