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Vistra Corp. VST

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$19.59$82.78$145.97$209.15
2021-102026-09 · $140.67

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $110.53 and $179.03; nine in ten between $94.61 and $209.15.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 105 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 66% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-41.4%-27.6%-13.8%0.0%
2016-102026-09 · -32.5%

Worst drawdown: −41%, peaking Apr 2019 and bottoming Mar 2020 — 51 months below the prior high before recovering.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$12,000
Value today
$62,352
Return
+419.6%
Months invested
120

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $14,361 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +334.2%.

Lump sum instead — $12,000 all at once in Oct 2016: $111,055 (+825.5%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Jul 2025): $1,280 on $1,500 invested (-14.6%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2016-10: +419.6%

About Vistra Corp.

Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company based in Irving, Texas. The company is the largest competitive power generator in the U.S. with a capacity of approximately 39GW powered by a diverse portfolio, including natural gas, coal, nuclear, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under utilities and electric utilities, with a market cap of about $47.2B.

It rates Extreme Risk at 3.3/5, meaning the rated factors are poor across the board — treat any position here as speculative.

What pushes the score up: earnings quality (5.0/5) and leverage / financial (4.0/5).

Scoring well: liquidity at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Extreme Risk(3.3/5)80% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility3.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)4/548.2
  • Max drawdown from ATH2/541.4
  • Beta vs S&P 5003/51.1
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/5654.2m
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financial4.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Debt / equity4/53.6
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)not yet researched
Earnings Quality5.0/5 · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatility5/5116
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory3.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure3/5elevated

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.