Moderna MRNA

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

2021-102026-09 · $154.04

Range of outcomes, looking ahead3 months

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $101.23 and $234.4; nine in ten between $77.21 and $307.31.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 79 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 61% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

2018-122026-09 · -60.0%

Worst drawdown: −94%, peaking Sep 2021 and bottoming Aug 2025 — still unrecovered after 60 months.

DCA Backtest

Start month

Monthly amount (USD)

Invested: $9,400
Value today: $30,119
Return: +220.4%
Months invested: 94

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $10,847 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +177.7%.

Lump sum instead — $9,400 all at once in Dec 2018: $94,825 (+908.8%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Sep 2021): $14,322 on $6,100 invested (+134.8%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

	J	F	M	A	M	J	J	A	S	O	N	D
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026

Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2018-12: +220.4%

About Moderna

Moderna, Inc. is an American pharmaceutical and biotechnology company based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, that focuses on RNA therapeutics, primarily mRNA vaccines. These vaccines use a copy of a molecule called messenger RNA (mRNA) to carry instructions for proteins to produce an immune response. The company's name is derived from the terms "modified", "RNA", and "modern". (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under health care and biotechnology, with a market cap of about $61.5B.

It rates High Risk at 2.8/5, meaning several rated factors score badly, so this carries materially more risk than a typical holding.

What pushes the score up: earnings quality (5.0/5) and market / volatility (4.3/5).

Scoring well: leverage / financial at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

High Risk(2.8/5)80% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility4.3/5 · weight 20%

Annualised volatility (3yr)5/584.0
Max drawdown from ATH5/593.7
Beta vs S&P 5003/51.1

Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%

Avg daily $ volume1/51.7bn
Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched

Leverage / Financial1.0/5 · weight 20%

Debt / equity1/50.09
Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)not yet researched

Earnings Quality5.0/5 · weight 15%

3yr EPS volatility5/5100

Concentrationunrated · weight 10%

Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched

Governanceunrated · weight 10%

Board independence %not yet researched
Share structurenot yet researched
Litigation / audit historynot yet researched

Sector / Regulatory3.0/5 · weight 10%

Sector regulatory exposure3/5elevated

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.