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Moderna MRNA

equity

Price History

$13.1$137.02$260.94$384.86
2018-12 · DCA start$15.27

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-93.7%-62.5%-31.2%0.0%
2018-122026-08 · -83.5%

Worst drawdown: −94%, peaking Sep 2021 and bottoming Aug 2025 — still unrecovered after 59 months.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$9,300
Value today
$12,463
Return
+34.0%
Months invested
93

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $10,705 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +16.4%.

Lump sum instead — $9,300 all at once in Dec 2018: $38,777 (+317.0%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Sep 2021): $5,933 on $6,000 invested (-1.1%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2018-12: +34.0%

About Moderna

Moderna, Inc. is an American pharmaceutical and biotechnology company based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, that focuses on RNA therapeutics, primarily mRNA vaccines. These vaccines use a copy of a molecule called messenger RNA (mRNA) to carry instructions for proteins to produce an immune response. The company's name is derived from the terms "modified", "RNA", and "modern". (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under health care and biotechnology, with a market cap of about $25.4B.

It rates High Risk at 2.8/5, meaning several rated factors score badly, so this carries materially more risk than a typical holding.

What pushes the score up: earnings quality (5.0/5) and market / volatility (4.3/5).

Scoring well: leverage / financial at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

High Risk(2.8/5)80% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility4.3/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)5/563.9
  • Max drawdown from ATH5/593.7
  • Beta vs S&P 5003/51.0
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/5446.6m
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financial1.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Debt / equity1/50.09
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)not yet researched
Earnings Quality5.0/5 · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatility5/5100
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory3.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure3/5elevated

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.