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Mastercard MA

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$284.34$403.73$523.13$642.52
2021-102026-09 · $565.24

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $522.88 and $611.04; nine in ten between $497.25 and $642.52.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 230 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 72% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-56.0%-37.3%-18.7%0.0%
2006-052026-09 · -5.0%

Worst drawdown: −56%, peaking May 2008 and bottoming Jan 2009 — 39 months below the prior high before recovering.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$24,500
Value today
$317,786
Return
+1197.1%
Months invested
245

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $33,079 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +860.7%.

Lump sum instead — $24,500 all at once in May 2006: $3,081,526 (+12477.7%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Aug 2025): $1,457 on $1,400 invested (+4.1%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
2006
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2011
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2026
Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2006-05: +1197.1%

About Mastercard

Mastercard Inc. is an American multinational payment card services corporation headquartered in Purchase, New York. It provides payment transaction processing and other related-payment services, including travel-related payments and bookings). Its principal business globally is to process payments between the banks of merchants and the card-issuing banks or credit unions of purchasers who use its branded debit, credit and prepaid cards to make purchases. Mastercard has been publicly traded since 2006. (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under financials and transaction & payment processing services.

It rates Medium-Low Risk at 1.9/5, meaning the rated factors are mostly sound, with one or two areas worth watching.

What pushes the score up: sector / regulatory (4.0/5) and market / volatility (2.7/5).

Scoring well: earnings quality at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Medium-Low Risk(1.9/5)80% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility2.7/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)2/515.6
  • Max drawdown from ATH3/556.0
  • Beta vs S&P 5003/50.98
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/51.9bn
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financial1.5/5 · weight 20%
  • Debt / equity2/54.4
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)1/527.8
Earnings Quality1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatility1/51.1
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory4.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure4/5high

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.