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Expand Energy EXE

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$59.54$80.34$101.13$121.93
2021-102026-09 · $87.49

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $76.79 and $99.68; nine in ten between $70.6 and $108.43.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 53 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 68% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-28.2%-18.8%-9.4%0.0%
2021-022026-09 · -28.2%

Worst drawdown: −28%, peaking Nov 2025 and bottoming Sep 2026 — still unrecovered after 10 months.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$6,800
Value today
$7,280
Return
+7.1%
Months invested
68

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $7,470 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is -2.5%.

Lump sum instead — $6,800 all at once in Feb 2021: $13,466 (+98.0%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Nov 2025): $947.49 on $1,100 invested (-13.9%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2021-02: +7.1%

About Expand Energy

Expand Energy Corporation is the largest independent natural gas producer in the U.S., based on net daily production. Headquartered in Spring, Texas, the company operates in the Appalachian Basin of the Marcellus Formation in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, as well as the Haynesville Shale in Northwestern Louisiana. (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under energy and oil & gas exploration & production, with a market cap of about $20.3B.

It rates Medium-Low Risk at 2.2/5, meaning the rated factors are mostly sound, with one or two areas worth watching.

What pushes the score up: earnings quality (5.0/5) and sector / regulatory (3.0/5).

Scoring well: leverage / financial at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Medium-Low Risk(2.2/5)80% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility1.7/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)3/526.1
  • Max drawdown from ATH1/528.2
  • Beta vs S&P 5001/50.34
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/5339.0m
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financial1.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Debt / equity1/50.23
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)not yet researched
Earnings Quality5.0/5 · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatility5/5100
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory3.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure3/5elevated

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.