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Dollar Tree DLTR

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$64.64$98.21$131.79$165.36
2021-102026-09 · $111.96

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $93.63 and $133.89; nine in ten between $83.42 and $150.26.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 364 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 68% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-60.9%-40.6%-20.3%0.0%
1995-032026-09 · -32.3%

Worst drawdown: −61%, peaking Jul 2022 and bottoming Oct 2024 — still unrecovered after 50 months.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$37,900
Value today
$334,645
Return
+783.0%
Months invested
379

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $59,035 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +466.9%.

Lump sum instead — $37,900 all at once in Mar 1995: $3,143,653 (+8194.6%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Jul 2022): $5,200 on $5,100 invested (+2.0%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
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Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 1995-03: +783.0%

About Dollar Tree

Dollar Tree, Inc., formerly known as Dollar Tree Stores, Inc., is an American multi-price-point chain of discount variety stores. Headquartered in Chesapeake, Virginia, it is a Fortune 500 company and operates 15,115 stores throughout the 48 contiguous U.S. states and Canada. Its stores are supported by a nationwide logistics network of 24 distribution centers. (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under consumer staples and consumer staples merchandise retail, with a market cap of about $21.0B.

It rates High Risk at 2.9/5, meaning several rated factors score badly, so this carries materially more risk than a typical holding.

What pushes the score up: earnings quality (5.0/5) and market / volatility (3.0/5).

Scoring well: liquidity at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

High Risk(2.9/5)80% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility3.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)3/535.8
  • Max drawdown from ATH3/560.9
  • Beta vs S&P 5003/50.98
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/5371.5m
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financial3.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Debt / equity3/50.86
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)not yet researched
Earnings Quality5.0/5 · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatility5/5100
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory2.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure2/5moderate

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.