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Supermicro SMCI

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$3.54$36.03$68.52$101
2021-102026-09 · $39.09

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $24.59 and $62.15; nine in ten between $18.23 and $83.82.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 220 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 64% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-77.5%-51.6%-25.8%0.0%
2007-032026-09 · -61.3%

Worst drawdown: −77%, peaking Mar 2024 and bottoming Mar 2026 — still unrecovered after 30 months.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$23,500
Value today
$486,947
Return
+1972.1%
Months invested
235

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $31,431 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +1449.3%.

Lump sum instead — $23,500 all at once in Mar 2007: $1,021,819 (+4248.2%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Mar 2024): $3,145 on $3,100 invested (+1.4%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
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Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2007-03: +1972.1%

About Supermicro

Super Micro Computer, Inc., doing business as Supermicro, is an American information technology company based in San Jose, California. The company is one of the largest producers of high-performance and high-efficiency servers, while also providing server management software, and storage systems for various markets, including enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, 5G, and edge computing. Supermicro was founded in 1993, and has manufacturing operations in Silicon Valley, the Netherlands, and in Taiwan at its Science and Technology Park. (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under information technology and technology hardware, storage & peripherals, with a market cap of about $25.7B.

It rates Medium-High Risk at 2.6/5, meaning real but ordinary risk — the kind most mainstream assets carry, with some factors scoring poorly.

What pushes the score up: earnings quality (5.0/5) and market / volatility (4.3/5).

Scoring well: sector / regulatory at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Medium-High Risk(2.6/5)80% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility4.3/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)5/592.7
  • Max drawdown from ATH4/577.5
  • Beta vs S&P 5004/51.5
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/51.8bn
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financial1.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Debt / equitynot yet researched
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)1/514.2
Earnings Quality5.0/5 · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatility5/555.6
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory1.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure1/5low

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.