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Marathon Petroleum MPC

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$60.85$224.12$387.39$550.65
2021-102026-09 · $424.89

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $362.93 and $497.43; nine in ten between $327.85 and $550.65.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 169 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 76% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-71.3%-47.5%-23.8%0.0%
2011-062026-09 · 0.0%

Worst drawdown: −71%, peaking Aug 2018 and bottoming Mar 2020 — 43 months below the prior high before recovering.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$18,400
Value today
$151,956
Return
+725.8%
Months invested
184

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $23,505 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +546.5%.

Lump sum instead — $18,400 all at once in Jun 2011: $377,680 (+1952.6%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Aug 2026): $213.81 on $200 invested (+6.9%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
2011
2012
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2020
2021
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2026
Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2011-06: +725.8%

About Marathon Petroleum

Marathon Petroleum Corporation is an American petroleum refining, marketing, and transportation company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. The company was a wholly owned subsidiary of Marathon Oil until a corporate spin-off in 2011. (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under energy and oil & gas refining & marketing, with a market cap of about $119.3B.

It rates Extreme Risk at 3.3/5, meaning the rated factors are poor across the board — treat any position here as speculative.

What pushes the score up: earnings quality (5.0/5) and market / volatility (3.7/5).

Scoring well: liquidity at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Extreme Risk(3.3/5)80% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility3.7/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)3/531.5
  • Max drawdown from ATH4/571.3
  • Beta vs S&P 5004/51.6
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/5760.6m
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financial3.5/5 · weight 20%
  • Debt / equity4/51.7
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)3/55.6
Earnings Quality5.0/5 · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatility5/562.6
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory3.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure3/5elevated

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.