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CF Industries CF

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$56.8$92.06$127.31$162.57
2021-102026-09 · $127.7

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $110.27 and $147.89; nine in ten between $100.31 and $162.57.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 239 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 67% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-71.2%-47.5%-23.7%0.0%
2005-082026-09 · -1.8%

Worst drawdown: −71%, peaking Jul 2008 and bottoming Jan 2009 — 37 months below the prior high before recovering.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$25,400
Value today
$157,905
Return
+521.7%
Months invested
254

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $34,591 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +356.5%.

Lump sum instead — $25,400 all at once in Aug 2005: $965,926 (+3702.9%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Aug 2026): $198.21 on $200 invested (-0.9%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
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Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2005-08: +521.7%

About CF Industries

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is an American manufacturer and distributor of agricultural fertilizers, including ammonia, urea, and ammonium nitrate products. The company is based in Northbrook, Illinois, a suburb of Chicago, and was founded in 1946 as the Central Farmers Fertilizer Company. For its first 56 years, it was a federation of regional agricultural supply cooperatives. CF then demutualized, and became a publicly traded company. (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under materials and fertilizers & agricultural chemicals, with a market cap of about $19.3B.

It rates Medium-Low Risk at 2.2/5, meaning the rated factors are mostly sound, with one or two areas worth watching.

What pushes the score up: market / volatility (3.3/5) and earnings quality (3.0/5).

Scoring well: liquidity at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Medium-Low Risk(2.2/5)80% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility3.3/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)3/529.4
  • Max drawdown from ATH4/571.2
  • Beta vs S&P 5003/51.0
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/5311.7m
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financial1.5/5 · weight 20%
  • Debt / equity2/50.56
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)1/514.8
Earnings Quality3.0/5 · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatility3/533.5
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory2.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure2/5moderate

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.