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American Water Works AWK

equity

Price History

The shaded fan is where this price has historically travelled over the months after a close like today’s. It is not a forecast: it has no view on direction, only on distance.

$117.65$141.39$165.12$188.86
2021-102026-09 · $135.9

Over 3 months from Sep 2026, roughly two-thirds of past moves landed between $124.67 and $148.14; nine in ten between $117.92 and $156.62.

Tested against this asset’s own history: across 207 past 3-month windows, the price actually landed inside the two-thirds band 70% of the time. The gap from 68% is the model’s error — real returns have fatter tails than the maths assumes, so the band gets breached more often than it claims.

Time underwater

How far below its previous all-time high the price sat, each month. 0% means a new high.

-37.7%-25.1%-12.6%0.0%
2008-042026-09 · -28.0%

Worst drawdown: −38%, peaking Dec 2021 and bottoming Oct 2023 — still unrecovered after 57 months.

DCA Backtest

Invested
$22,200
Value today
$57,317
Return
+158.2%
Months invested
222

Scenarios

Inflation — the same contributions merely keeping pace with CPI would be $29,353 today, so the real (inflation-adjusted) return is +95.3%.

Lump sum instead — $22,200 all at once in Apr 2008: $142,647 (+542.6%) — lump sum came out ahead.

Worst timing — same monthly amount started at the all-time high (Dec 2021): $5,692 on $5,800 invested (-1.9%).

⚠ Price returns only — dividends are not included. This understates the true return of dividend-paying shares, and any comparison against crypto (which pays no dividends) is biased against equities by roughly the dividend yield, compounded.

If this saved you a spreadsheet — buy me a coffee.

Every start month at once

Each cell is the return-to-date of £/$/€100-a-month DCA started that month. Click a cell to load it in the backtest above. The ringed cell is the all-time-high start — the worst timing scenario.

JFMAMJJASOND
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Legend:−50%−20%0%+50%+200%+1000%worst timing (ATH)Selected 2008-04: +158.2%

About American Water Works

American Water Works Company, Inc. is an American public utility company that, through its subsidiaries, provides water and wastewater services in the United States. (Wikipedia)

It's a listed company categorised under utilities and water utilities, with a market cap of about $27.0B.

It rates Low Risk at 1.7/5, meaning the rated factors look benign — steady pricing, deep liquidity, and no obvious structural red flags.

What pushes the score up: sector / regulatory (3.0/5).

Scoring well: earnings quality at 1.0/5.

Not yet researched: concentration, governance. These are excluded from the score rather than guessed, so the real risk may be higher than what’s shown.

Ratings summarise sourced facts against fixed rules — not investment advice, and no substitute for your own diligence.

Risk Profile

Low Risk(1.7/5)80% rated

How these ratings work

Market / Volatility1.7/5 · weight 20%
  • Annualised volatility (3yr)2/517.3
  • Max drawdown from ATH2/537.7
  • Beta vs S&P 5001/50.37
Liquidity1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • Avg daily $ volume1/5313.2m
  • Float % of shares outstandingnot yet researched
Leverage / Financial2.0/5 · weight 20%
  • Debt / equity2/51.3
  • Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)not yet researched
Earnings Quality1.0/5 · weight 15%
  • 3yr EPS volatility1/53.1
Concentrationunrated · weight 10%
  • Largest customer, % of revenuenot yet researched
  • Geographic revenue concentrationnot yet researched
Governanceunrated · weight 10%
  • Board independence %not yet researched
  • Share structurenot yet researched
  • Litigation / audit historynot yet researched
Sector / Regulatory3.0/5 · weight 10%
  • Sector regulatory exposure3/5elevated

Linked Assets

Same sector, or return-correlated — worth knowing what else might move if this one does.